MATHS ARE THE SOLUTION!
We use probabilistic laws to predict extreme events (also called extreme values, or return values) for a particular phenomenon, over large return periods that usually exceed the duration of the measured or modelled data.
It is very important that the numerical simulation be validated against in-situ measurements to ensure that the simulation represents as accurately as possible the storms observed over the area.
There are two theorems of the extreme value theory:
The Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko theorem states that the distribution of block maxima can be accurately described by a Generalized Extreme Values distribution
The Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem states that the distribution of peaks over a threshold (POT) can be accurately described by a Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)
These theorems and the extreme value analysis in general are intricate statistical work. Open Ocean has developed statistical analysis tools, used within Metocean Analytics, that allow to perform these calculations at lightning speed.