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Highest wave on 1000 years! How does ocean numerical model to calculate it

Based on Ocean Numerical simulation it is possible to estimate the highest wave over 1000 years period. At the human scale, it seems to be inthinkable, but today most of offshore project constructors study carefully the environement’s extreme values of their offshore project.

MATHS ARE THE SOLUTION!

We use probabilistic laws to predict extreme events (also called extreme values, or return values) for a particular phenomenon, over large return periods that usually exceed the duration of the measured or modelled data.

Hs extreme values at point #1271.png Hs extreme values at point #1271(2).png
 

It is very important that the numerical simulation be validated against in-situ measurements to ensure that the simulation represents as accurately as possible the storms observed over the area.


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There are two theorems of the extreme value theory:
The Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko theorem states that the distribution of block maxima can be accurately described by a Generalized Extreme Values distribution

The Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem states that the distribution of peaks over a threshold (POT) can be accurately described by a Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)

These theorems and the extreme value analysis in general are intricate statistical work. Open Ocean has developed statistical analysis tools, used within Metocean Analytics, that allow to perform these calculations at lightning speed.